Making index insurance attractive to farmers

There are several factors that influence whether people will want to participate in index insurance programs. A number of these influence their attractiveness on economic grounds, including both the size and timing of the premium and potential payouts, and the degree of risk aversion of the potential customers. Other factors make programs attractive for reasons that are not economic, but no less valid. These have to do with the trust that people have in the insurance product and the organizations involved in selling and managing it. Indeed, data from India, Africa, and South America show that these factors may be more important than the economic ones in influencing demand. Index insurance pilot projects, in order to estimate demand for alternative products, have typically involved a great deal of interaction with potential customers. It is important to recognize that such interaction is crucial not just as a research tool, but also as a means to build understanding and trust in the products. When scaling up from isolated pilots to operational programs, it is vital to recognize this trust building function by replicating participation efforts in every community. In this paper, we examine the role of field games in establishing and building trust in three important aspects of these projects for participants: trust in the insurance product, trust in the participating organizations, and trust in their own ability to make good decisions. While games have previously been used as a way to gauge interest in the product and to identify design features, we argue that these games are also valuable tools for constructing these kinds of trust.     

Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed,Agricultural Watershed

Anticipating changes in hydrologic variables is essential for making socioeconomic water resource decisions. This study aims to assess the potential impact of land use and climate change on the hydrologic processes of a primarily rain‐fed, agriculturally based watershed in Missouri. A detailed evaluation was performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the near future (2020–2039) and mid‐century (2040–2059). Land use scenarios were mapped using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model. Ensemble results, based on 19 climate models, indicated a temperature increase of about 1.0°C in near future and 2.0°C in mid‐century. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed distinct annual and seasonal hydrologic variations. Annual precipitation was projected to increase from 6% to 7%, which resulted in 14% more spring days with soil water content equal to or exceeding field capacity in mid‐century. However, summer precipitation was projected to decrease, a critical factor for crop growth. Higher temperatures led to increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Combined with changes in precipitation patterns, this resulted in an increased need for irrigation by 38 mm representing a 10% increase in total irrigation water use. Analysis from multiple land use scenarios indicated converting agriculture to forest land can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change on streamflow, thus ensuring future water availability.     

Validating graph-based connectivity models with independent presence–absence and genetic data sets

Habitat connectivity is a key objective of current conservation policies and is commonly modeled by landscape graphs (i.e., sets of habitat patches [nodes] connected by potential dispersal paths [links]). These graphs are often built based on expert opinion or species distribution models (SDMs) and therefore lack empirical validation from data more closely reflecting functional connectivity. Accordingly, we tested whether landscape graphs reflect how habitat connectivity influences gene flow, which is one of the main ecoevolutionary processes. To that purpose, we modeled the habitat network of a forest bird (plumbeous warbler [Setophaga plumbea]) on Guadeloupe with graphs based on expert opinion, Jacobs’ specialization indices, and an SDM. We used genetic data (712 birds from 27 populations) to compute local genetic indices and pairwise genetic distances. Finally, we assessed the relationships between genetic distances or indices and cost distances or connectivity metrics with maximum-likelihood population-effects distance models and Spearman correlations between metrics. Overall, the landscape graphs reliably reflected the influence of connectivity on population genetic structure; validation R² was up to 0.30 and correlation coefficients were up to 0.71. Yet, the relationship among graph ecological relevance, data requirements, and construction and analysis methods was not straightforward because the graph based on the most complex construction method (species distribution modeling) sometimes had less ecological relevance than the others. Cross-validation methods and sensitivity analyzes allowed us to make the advantages and limitations of each construction method spatially explicit. We confirmed the relevance of landscape graphs for conservation modeling but recommend a case-specific consideration of the cost-effectiveness of their construction methods. We hope the replication of independent validation approaches across species and landscapes will strengthen the ecological relevance of connectivity models.     

Potassium carbonate-based ternary transition temperature mixture (deep eutectic analogues) for CO2 absorption: Characterizations and DFT analysis

•Addition of hindered amine increased thermal stability and viscosity of TTTM. •Addition of hindered amine improved the CO₂ absorption performance of TTTM. •Good the CO₂ absorption of recycled solvents after two regenerations. •Important role of amine group in CO₂ absorption of TTTM confirmed by DFT analysis. Is it possible to improve CO₂ solubility in potassium carbonate (K₂CO₃)-based transition temperature mixtures (TTMs)? To assess this possibility, a ternary transition-temperature mixture (TTTM) was prepared by using a hindered amine, 2-amino-2-methyl-1,3-propanediol (AMPD). Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) was employed to detect the functional groups including hydroxyl, amine, carbonate ion, and aliphatic functional groups in the prepared solvents. From thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), it was found that the addition of AMPD to the binary mixture can increase the thermal stability of TTTM. The viscosity findings showed that TTTM has a higher viscosity than TTM while their difference was decreased by increasing temperature. In addition, Eyring’s absolute rate theory was used to compute the activation parameters (ΔG*, ΔH*, and ΔS*). The CO₂ solubility in liquids was measured at a temperature of 303.15 K and pressures up to 1.8 MPa. The results disclosed that the CO₂ solubility of TTTM was improved by the addition of AMPD. At the pressure of about 1.8 MPa, the CO₂ mole fractions of TTM and TTTM were 0.1697 and 0.2022, respectively. To confirm the experimental data, density functional theory (DFT) was employed. From the DFT analysis, it was found that the TTTM+ CO₂ system has higher interaction energy (|ΔE |) than the TTM+ CO₂ system indicating the higher CO₂ affinity of the former system. This study might help scientists to better understand and to improve CO₂ solubility in these types of solvents by choosing a suitable amine as HBD and finding the best combination of HBA and HBD.     

Biological effects of selenium and relationships with carcinogenesis†

Selenium is an element that is both essential, at low levels of dietary intake, and toxic, at high levels, to man and a wide range of animals. The purpose of the communication is to review the evidence for the involvement of hyper‐ and hypo‐selenosis in the aetiology of cancer. High levels of selenium intake have been blamed for an increase in cancer, dental caries and an array of other conditions. Critical evaluation of the evidence, however, leads to the conclusion that such claims have little substance. On the other hand, low levels of selenium intake may be associated with an increased incidence of certain forms of cancer and there appears to be an inverse relationship between blood selenium levels and cancer death rate in the United States. Keshan Disease, in the People's Republic of China has only been shown to occur in populations severely depleted of selenium. In well nourished populations there is no evidence to indicate that selenium supplements have any prophylactic or therapeutic benefit against human diseases such as cancer, cardiovascular disease or cystic fibrosis.     

A regional-scale sustainable development index: the case of Baja California Sur,Mexico

Sustainable development, as a multi-dimensional concept, is difficult to measure. Some efforts using indicators and indices have appeared in recent years, but most were developed on a national scale. Use of sustainability indicators has proven valuable for attaining better management of the environment by minimizing information gaps and maximizing community capabilities in terms of economic, social, environmental, and institutional sustainability dimensions. However, at least in the case of developing countries, the potential exists that national sustainability measures, based on national level indicators, may mask problems in sub-national zones with highly unsustainable conditions. This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate sustainable development at a local level, the use of which could be helpful in comparing different regions within a country or even among different countries. National sustainability indicators should result from a combination (whether additive or proportional) of regional sustainability indicators, as developed in this paper.     

The specification of sustainable urban transport strategies

Transport strategies have been developed for nine European cities to achieve optimum performance in terms of a range of objective functions. The functions selected represent economic efficiency, sustainability and a combination of these. The strategies have been based on combinations of a standard set of policy instruments, including public transport infrastructure, frequency and fares, road capacity increases, low cost road pricing and parking charges. The optimisation method is described, and results presented. The reactions of city authorities to the proposed strategies are discussed and implications for transport policy outlined.     

短时间间隔的土地利用变化监测

传统的土地利用变化监测方法已无法完全满足当前经济的快速发展和城市急剧扩张的要求,利用光学遥感数据对地观测也受到天气和云层覆盖等诸多因素的限制。而Radarsat-1等雷达遥感数据可以在"全天候"的条件下对地表进行观测。论文以Radarsat-1图像获取的24 d时间周期为最短时间间隔,分析了24 d、48 d和72 d时间间隔下的土地利用变化监测,对短时间间隔内的土地利用变化监测的结果进行了总结。监测的结果需要在精度与时间间隔之间做出取舍。对于大部分的情况,24 d的时间间隔已可以得到60%以上精度的结果,部分月份的监测需要48 d的监测时间间隔。若需要更高的精度,则需要72 d甚至更长。     

Ecosystem network analysis indicators are generally robust to parameter uncertainty in a phosphorus model of Lake Sidney Lanier, USA

Understanding how data uncertainty influences ecosystem analysis is critical as we move toward ecosystem-based management. Here, we investigate how 18 Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) indicators that characterize ecosystem growth, development, and condition are affected by uncertainty in an ecosystem model of Lake Sidney Lanier (USA). We applied ENA to 122 plausible parameterizations of the ecosystem developed by Borrett and Osidele (2007, Ecological Modelling 200, 371-387), and then used the coefficient of variation (CV) to compare system indicator variability. We considered Total System Throughput (TST) as a measure of the underlying model uncertainty and tested three hypotheses. First, we hypothesized that non-ratio indicators whose calculation includes the TST would be at least as variable as TST if not more variable. Second, we postulated that indicators calculated as ratios, with TST in the numerator and denominator would tend to be less variable than TST because its influence will cancel. Last, we expected the Average Mutual Information (AMI) to be less variable than TST because it is a bounded function. Our work shows that the 18 indicators grouped into four categories. The first group has significantly larger CVs than the CV for TST. In this group, model uncertainty is amplified rendering these three indicators less useful. The second group of four indicators shows no significant difference in variability with respect to TST. Finally, there are two groups whose CV values are significantly lower than that for TST. The least variable group includes the ratio-based indicators and Average Mutual Information. Due to their low variability, we conclude that these indicators are the most robust to the parameter uncertainty and most useful for ecosystem assessment and comparative ecosystem analysis. In summary, this work suggests that we can be as certain, or more certain, in most of the selected ENA indicators as we are in the parameters of the model analyzed.